91 days have passed by since the last earnings report for Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M) and the new quarterly results look set to arrive today. The shares of M at the moment are trading at a volume of 15.83 million, which compares with its normal daily standard volume of 9440526 shares. This has led to the shares of the company advancing by 0.41%, currently exchanging hands at $19.36 a share. M stock has been up by $22.63 (-53.89%) ever since it reached its 52-week high of $41.99 back in August 14, 2018. It has progressed below its 50-day moving average of $21.56 and is down -6.54% over the past week. The stock has retreated -11.6% since the last one arrived so the question here is that will the downbeat trend in that time frame continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is the M share price due for a breakout?
Macy’s, Inc. (M) Forecasts And Latest Quarter Earnings
Ahead of their fiscal second-quarter to be released on Wednesday, Aug 14, 2019, 14 analysts who are covering the company are estimating that it will record a profit of $0.45 per share, with analysts having different outlooks from $0.36 to $0.52. The current agreed outlook, when compared to the profit recorded last year, is at $0.7 a share, thus a decrease of -35.71% is expected. The profit view for a complete financial year for Macy’s, Inc. is expected to be around $3.07 in current year, a growth of nearly -26.56% from last year which was $4.18.
Let’s now look at their sales section, M’s revenue is estimated to be $5.57B, a figure which is less than the $5.57B recorded for Q2 last year. Their sequential sales though are expected to grow by 0.91% from their Q1’s sales which were $5.5B. Their full-year outlook is pegged at $24.89B, implying that there would be a drop of -0.32% over the $24.97B they recorded last year in revenue. Macy’s, Inc. is projected to get sales lifted by 0.16% in the next quarter, with a revenue target of $24.93B.
Analyzing The Earnings History Of Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M)
In the past few years, the M stock has been known to miss the Wall Street’s earnings projection. The company missed 16% of the time, according to the data pulled on their earnings, was able to meet predictions on 0 occasions and topped expectations 10 times. Looking at the past trend, the price of Macy’s, Inc. shares had sank following the release of their earnings in 20 of the last 38 quarters.
Looking back, here is how Macy’s, Inc. (M) stock reacted to earnings misses and beats. It gave investors reason to be bearish with the price going down after 3 of the last four earnings reports. The shares of Macy’s, Inc. recorded -0.46%, 1.48%, -7.18% and -15.95%, respectively, on the first day of past earnings releases. After a week of earnings reports, the changes were -0.14%, 0%, -10.73% and -8.56%. Their post-earnings price movements have resulted in an average decrease of -5.53% and an average decrease of -4.86% in Macy’s, Inc. on next day and 7th day, sequentially. M’s one month stock performance led to its shares declining by -12% with a return of -52.47% witnessed over the last 52 weeks.
The lower number of analysts at Reuters has assigned a buy or better ratings (2) on the Macy’s, Inc. stock, while 11 of them have a rating of a Hold with the 11-year target price suggested by the analysts standing at $23. This price target implies potential upside of 18.8 percent over the next 12 months based on the current share price.
Macy’s, Inc. (M) Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)
Back on May 15, 2019, Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M) released its Q1 results, in which it recorded EPS of $0.44 that exceeded consensus estimates of $0.33. After the earnings were reported, the price of M stock kicked off the session at $21.38 and remained in a range of $22.25 to $22.68 on the first day. The shares were priced at $21.7 at the close with a total volume of shares being 33610920.
On February 26, 2019, the Q4 earnings report was disclosed with EPS of $2.73. This was above the estimation of $2.53 per share. The stock price range of M was between $24.5 and $25.6 on the first-day post announcement, after opening the day at $24.2. The session came to close at $24.72 and there was a total volume of 28342960 shares.
November 14, 2018 was the day when its Q3 results were unveiled. The earnings came in at $0.27, beating the projected $0.14 per share. The very next day, M stock opened at $33 while staying in a range of $35.19 to $37.32. At the end, it moved to $33.22 a total volume of shares been 29684664.
In the year-ago Q2 earnings on August 15, 2018, the company saw profit per share of $0.7. That was better than the $0.51 analysts had expected. Macy’s, Inc. share price started at $35.12 on the first full trading day post-earning and then exchanged hands between $38.92 and $39.3 throughout the session. The closing price of $35.15 came on the back of 45129156 shares in volume.