TCF Financial Corporation (TCF) has a history of momentum ahead of earnings

49 days have passed by since the last earnings report for TCF Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:TCF) and the new quarterly results look set to arrive in 44 days. The shares of TCF at the moment are trading at a volume of 0.71 million, which compares with its normal daily standard volume of 930045 shares. This has led to the shares of the company advancing by 2.7%, currently exchanging hands at $41.06 a share. TCF stock has been up by $10.86 (-28.1%) ever since it reached its 52-week high of $51.92 back in September 21, 2018. It has progressed above its 50-day moving average of $39.18 and is up 9.76% over the past week. The stock has retreated -10.5% since the last one arrived so the question here is that will the downbeat trend in that time frame continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is the TCF share price due for a breakout?

TCF Financial Corporation (TCF) Forecasts And Latest Quarter Earnings

Ahead of their fiscal third-quarter to be released on Friday, Oct 25, 2019, 13 analysts who are covering the company are estimating that it will record a profit of $0.96 per share, with analysts having different outlooks from $0.8 to $1.1. The current agreed outlook, when compared to the profit recorded last year, is at $0.98 a share, thus a decrease of -2.04% is expected. The profit view for a complete financial year for TCF Financial Corporation is expected to be around $3.53 in current year, a growth of nearly -10.41% from last year which was $3.94.

Analyzing The Earnings History Of TCF Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:TCF)

In the past few years, the TCF stock has been known to miss the Wall Street’s earnings projection. The company missed 16% of the time, according to the data pulled on their earnings, was able to meet predictions on 0 occasions and topped expectations 10 times. Looking at the past trend, the price of TCF Financial Corporation shares had risen following the release of their earnings in 5 of the last 10 quarters.

Looking back, here is how TCF Financial Corporation (TCF) stock reacted to earnings misses and beats. It gave investors reason to cast doubts with the price going down after 2 of the last four earnings reports. The shares of TCF Financial Corporation recorded 0.88%, -0.09%, 5.37% and -6.28%, respectively, on the first day of past earnings releases. After a week of earnings reports, the changes were -2.1%, 0.71%, 5.2% and -7.88%. Their post-earnings price movements have resulted in an average decrease of -0.03% and an average decrease of -1.02% in TCF Financial Corporation on next day and 7th day, sequentially. TCF’s one month stock performance led to its shares rising by 5.5% with a return of -27.67% witnessed over the last 52 weeks.

TCF Financial Corporation (TCF) Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)

Back on July 24, 2019, TCF Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:TCF) released its Q2 results, in which it recorded EPS of $0.96 that fell short of consensus estimates of $1.01. After the earnings were reported, the price of TCF stock kicked off the session at $43.2 and remained in a range of $43.3 to $44.77 on the first day. The shares were priced at $43.32 at the close with a total volume of shares being 906238.

On April 23, 2019, the Q1 earnings report was disclosed with EPS of $0.87. This was below the estimation of $0.99 per share. The stock price range of TCF was between $42.62 and $44.15 on the first-day post announcement, after opening the day at $42.5. The session came to close at $43.58 and there was a total volume of 926121 shares.

January 28, 2019 was the day when its Q4 results were unveiled. The earnings came in at $1.01, beating the projected $0.98 per share. The very next day, TCF stock opened at $43.85 while staying in a range of $45 to $46.62. At the end, it moved to $44.75 a total volume of shares been 4062479.

In the year-ago Q3 earnings on October 22, 2018, the company saw profit per share of $0.98. That was worse than the $0.99 analysts had expected. TCF Financial Corporation share price started at $21.02 on the first full trading day post-earning and then exchanged hands between $22.77 and $22.77 throughout the session. The closing price of $21.05 came on the back of 2484947 shares in volume.