Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA): The Earnings Game

83 days have passed by since the last earnings report for Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) and the new quarterly results look set to arrive in 13 days. The shares of AKBA at the moment are trading at a volume of 0.78 million, which compares with its normal daily standard volume of 805.46 million shares. This has led to the shares of the company declining by -2.49%, currently exchanging hands at $3.92 a share. AKBA stock has been up by $6.53 (-62.49%) ever since it reached its 52-week high of $10.45 back in December 13, 2018. It has progressed below its 50-day moving average of $4.3281 and is down -7.98% over the past week. The stock has added 9.8% since the last one arrived so the question here is that will the upbeat trend in that time frame continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is the AKBA share price due for a correction?

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Forecasts And Latest Quarter Earnings

Ahead of their fiscal third-quarter to be released on Tuesday, Nov 12, 2019, 7 analysts who are covering the company are estimating that it will record a profit of -$0.43 per share, with analysts having different outlooks from -$0.52 to -$0.31. The current agreed outlook, when compared to the profit recorded last year, is at -$0.46 a share, thus a decrease of -6.52% is expected. The profit view for a complete financial year for Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. is expected to be around -$2 in current year, a decline of nearly 29.87% from last year which was -$1.54.

Let’s now look at their sales section, AKBA’s revenue is estimated to be $53169, a figure which is more than the $53169 recorded for Q3 last year. Their sequential sales though are expected to move versus Q2’s $100.8B. Their full-year outlook is pegged at $372.43M, implying that there would be an increase of 79.28% over the $207.74M they recorded last year in revenue. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. is projected to get sales lifted by 2.26% in the next quarter, with a revenue target of $380.84M.

Analyzing The Earnings History Of Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA)

In the past few years, the AKBA stock has been known to miss the Wall Street’s earnings projection. The company missed 41% of the time, according to the data pulled on their earnings, was able to meet predictions on 0 occasions and topped expectations 7 times. Looking at the past trend, the price of Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. shares had sank following the release of their earnings in 11 of the last 22 quarters.

Looking back, here is how Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) stock reacted to earnings misses and beats. It gave investors reason to be bullish with the price going down after 1 of the last four earnings reports. The shares of Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. recorded 13.93%, 0.51%, -2.63% and 9.27%, respectively, on the first day of past earnings releases. After a week of earnings reports, the changes were 21.04%, -1.7%, -19.82% and -3.41%. Their post-earnings price movements have resulted in an average increase of 5.27% and an average decrease of -0.97% in Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. on next day and 7th day, sequentially. AKBA’s one month stock performance led to its shares declining by 0% with a return of -51.36% witnessed over the last 52 weeks.

The higher number of analysts has assigned a buy or better ratings (6) on the Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. stock, while 2 of them have a rating of a Hold with the 11-year target price suggested by the analysts standing at $17.48. This price target implies potential upside of 345.92 percent over the next 12 months based on the current share price.

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)

Back on August 08, 2019, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) released its Q2 results, in which it recorded a loss of -$0.49 that fell short of consensus estimates of -$0.32. After the earnings were reported, the price of AKBA stock kicked off the session at $3.52 and remained in a range of $3.52 to $4.2 on the first day. The shares were priced at $4.17 at the close with a total volume of shares being 1143610.

On May 09, 2019, the Q1 earnings report was disclosed with loss per share of -$0.62. This was below the estimation of -$0.4 per share. The stock price range of AKBA was between $5.62 and $6.04 on the first-day post announcement, after opening the day at $5.61. The session came to close at $5.92 and there was a total volume of 860051 shares.

March 26, 2019 was the day when its Q4 results were unveiled. The loss came in at -$0.23, beating the projected -$0.24 per share. The very next day, AKBA stock opened at $8.32 while staying in a range of $8.67 to $8.7. At the end, it moved to $8.5 a total volume of shares been 1081416.

In the year-ago Q3 earnings on November 08, 2018, the company saw a loss per share of -$0.46. That was better than the -$0.64 analysts had expected. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. share price started at $8.32 on the first full trading day post-earning and then exchanged hands between $8.47 and $10.06 throughout the session. The closing price of $8.96 came on the back of 2579683 shares in volume.